On paper Warringah is a very safe Liberal seat, but there are some indications that it has the potential to slip from the Coalition’s control.
In 1999 54.5% of the electorate voted yes in the republic referendum – one of only 42 seats where this happened.
The seat is also a relatively strong area for the Greens, although they have mostly chipped into the Labor vote.
There aren’t many precedents for a television celebrity running seriously as an independent.
In New South Wales in 1988 the Olympic swimmer Dawn Fraser was elected as the independent state member for Balmain, and in 2013 the rugby league star Glenn Lazarus was elected on the Palmer United ticket to the federal Senate.
Lazarus’s former Canberra Raiders teammate Mal Meninga famously announced he would run as an independent for the Australian Capital Territory’s Legislative Assembly in 2001, before quickly changing his mind.
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