Mungo MacCallum Queensland aftershock may topple Abbott

So it appears that the earth has moved in Queensland. The big question is whether the aftershock may yet topple Tony Abbott in far off Canberra.

Conventional wisdom is that the massive swing in the north is a disaster for him, perhaps even a terminal one. The LNP - the organisation, the membership and importantly the financial backers - will be utterly demoralised, not the best preparation to defend a swag of federal seats next year. And the comparisons are irresistible: a one-term government that ambushed the electorate with radical, unpopular and frequently confusing decisions driven by an arrogant and out-of-touch leader who was unable even to explain his agenda, let alone convince the voters of its merits.

In the wake of a drubbing in Victoria and on the brink of another election in New South Wales, Abbott is facing a shitstorm, and he cannot avoid his home state as he shunned the campaign in Queensland - not, apparently, that it did him much good; his absence was as much a talking point as his presence would have been.

But in a funny, almost treacherous, sort of way, he may feel that even in Queensland the glass is still half full. He never much liked Newman anyway, and his immolation at the hands of the punters just may have assuaged their bloodlust. It may, of course, have only encouraged it to turn more savagely on the even more loathed federal leader next year, but you have to look on the bright side. And there is a long held (but unproven) theory that voters don't like it if both the state and federal government belong to the same party. Well, that's been fixed.

And as comparisons go, how about this one. There will be a new Labor government with a new leader, untried and unready, and with any luck forming a minority administration. And what's more she will be a woman. Now there's an analogy worth making.

But if Abbott is to enjoy it, he will first need to survive, and last weekend the dogs were barking and starting to salivate. The backbenchers are nervous and restive, not just worried about the survival of the Government but convinced of a well-justified apprehension that their own seats are in danger. And ministers, for all their denials, are preparing their manoeuvres around the possibility of a bloodless (they hope) coup.