Sometimes after elections and byelections, earnest analysis by experts is called for. But not this time.
The message is clear even to us bozos: the Australian people are waiting for the Libs with a cricket bat, intent on pounding their behinds and administering electoral punishment.
Keep coming, keep coming. Now bend over and WHACK, WHACK, WHACK.
Liberal Candidate for Wentworth, Dave Sharma, after conceding defeat.
Longman byelection: 10 per cent swing against the LNP. Wagga byelection: 28 per cent swing against the LNP. Wentworth byelection: so far, a 20 per cent swing against the LNP.
Yes, the Prime Minister and his remaining supporters will try to spin this, pointing to the perfect storm that formed against their candidate. And there really were headwinds for their candidate, Dave Sharma, that must have felt like Cyclone Tracy – the knifing of Turnbull, the backing of Pauline Hanson’s white supremacist motion in the Senate, the angst over the lack of climate change policy, the fury of the continued insistence on keeping refugee kids on Nauru, the outrage over the Opera House being used as a billboard, the issue of allowing the expulsion of gay kids and teachers from private schools.
But there are two problems with that. The first is that all of those headwinds are of the Libs’ own making. And secondly, a disaster of these proportions is simply unspinnable.
Swings like those are unprecedented in Australian history and it points to carnage for the LNP at the next federal election due at the latest in May next year.
Graham Richardson put it well on Sky in last night’s coverage: if the Libs can’t hold Wentworth, the blue-est of all blue ribbon seats in Australian political history, just what can they hold? If they can’t hold a seat with a 17.8 per cent buffer, then who is safe?
The answer? No one.
Indeed, this swing is so bad the question has to be asked: is the LNP risking an implosion that might resemble what happened in Canada a couple of decades ago, where the ruling Progressive Conservative Party went from holding 169 seats before the 1993 election to just 15 seats, after a 26.97 per cent swing against them – eerily similar to the Wentworth swing.
Wentworth hiding puts Morrison government on course for general election catastrophe
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In terms of averting such a disaster, the Libs face a crucial choice. Do they move further to the right, as much of the commentariat will be urging them? Or do they head back to the centre to try to save the furniture?
I suspect they will head further right, but they should go to the sensible centre. Get serious on climate change. Embrace policies that will reduce emissions and might help save the reef. Treat refugees with humanity. Abandon cosying up to Pauline Hanson.
Move the whole soul of your party away from right-wing ideologues, and towards where the bulk of the people are – much closer to the centre. It is their choice.
Wentworth sent a very strong message, just as Longman did, just as Wagga Wagga did. Turn away from your nutters. Turn back to the people. Or face the consequences.
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| Kerryn Phelps has claims victory in the Wentworth by-election |
Keep coming, keep coming. Now bend over and WHACK, WHACK, WHACK.
Liberal Candidate for Wentworth, Dave Sharma, after conceding defeat.
Longman byelection: 10 per cent swing against the LNP. Wagga byelection: 28 per cent swing against the LNP. Wentworth byelection: so far, a 20 per cent swing against the LNP.
Yes, the Prime Minister and his remaining supporters will try to spin this, pointing to the perfect storm that formed against their candidate. And there really were headwinds for their candidate, Dave Sharma, that must have felt like Cyclone Tracy – the knifing of Turnbull, the backing of Pauline Hanson’s white supremacist motion in the Senate, the angst over the lack of climate change policy, the fury of the continued insistence on keeping refugee kids on Nauru, the outrage over the Opera House being used as a billboard, the issue of allowing the expulsion of gay kids and teachers from private schools.
But there are two problems with that. The first is that all of those headwinds are of the Libs’ own making. And secondly, a disaster of these proportions is simply unspinnable.
Swings like those are unprecedented in Australian history and it points to carnage for the LNP at the next federal election due at the latest in May next year.
Graham Richardson put it well on Sky in last night’s coverage: if the Libs can’t hold Wentworth, the blue-est of all blue ribbon seats in Australian political history, just what can they hold? If they can’t hold a seat with a 17.8 per cent buffer, then who is safe?
The answer? No one.
Indeed, this swing is so bad the question has to be asked: is the LNP risking an implosion that might resemble what happened in Canada a couple of decades ago, where the ruling Progressive Conservative Party went from holding 169 seats before the 1993 election to just 15 seats, after a 26.97 per cent swing against them – eerily similar to the Wentworth swing.
Wentworth hiding puts Morrison government on course for general election catastrophe
Add to shortlist
In terms of averting such a disaster, the Libs face a crucial choice. Do they move further to the right, as much of the commentariat will be urging them? Or do they head back to the centre to try to save the furniture?
I suspect they will head further right, but they should go to the sensible centre. Get serious on climate change. Embrace policies that will reduce emissions and might help save the reef. Treat refugees with humanity. Abandon cosying up to Pauline Hanson.
Move the whole soul of your party away from right-wing ideologues, and towards where the bulk of the people are – much closer to the centre. It is their choice.
Wentworth sent a very strong message, just as Longman did, just as Wagga Wagga did. Turn away from your nutters. Turn back to the people. Or face the consequences.
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