Obama win: implications for Australia

Tony Walker AFR

Here’s the question: what implications, if any, does an Obama victory based on the overwhelming support of women, minorities and young people have for Australian politics and for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott in particular?

In the 48 hours since US President Barack Obama secured a memorable victory in the midst of a continuing economic slump, the political class on both sides of politics in this country has been conducting quiet conversations with each other – and themselves – on that topic.

Barring polling on the subject I have no idea whether a US election has had a ripple effect here beyond what you might expect, but there are clearly lessons to be learned from what happened in America this week. Lesson number one is a successful candidate needs the broadest possible base of support.

Obama gained that broad-based backing in contrast to challenger Mitt Romney, who lost three demographics: women, minorities and young people, by wide margins.

Romney won big among white male voters across the country. He racked up large gains in evangelical communities, and he did well among Catholics, but this was not enough. In the end, his constituency was too narrow.

This begs the question whether Tony Abbott might be similarly vulnerable.

In two important areas, the respective systems are exhibiting similar characteristics – the female vote and the 18 to 29-year-old demographic, or as it’s polled here the 18-34 voting bloc.

In the US, the woman’s vote is becoming more critical as it has trended Democratic. Females voted overwhelmingly – by double digits – for Obama.

In an Australian context where issues such as a woman’s right to choose are less toxic, it’s unlikely that a demographic split will be as pronounced, but a gender gap is working against a conservative opposition leader.

Newspoll has Abbott trailing Gillard by a margin of 41-34 per cent among women when asked who would be the better prime minister. At one level this is a fairly meaningless question since Gillard is the prime minister, but a pronounced female tilt towards Labor is worrying for the Coalition, if the US example is borne in mind.

This brings us to the younger age bracket. Again it is possible to discern similarities between what happened in the US and here. The Coalition trails Labor by 6 to 8 percentage points in the 18 to 34-year-old demographic.

The world is shrinking, which brings us to the issue of incumbency. This is hard to measure, but American pollsters believe it accounts for 1-2 percentage points, all things being more or less equal.

Whether that applies in Australia is moot, but there is no doubt Obama benefited from his incumbent status against a challenger who never appeared entirely comfortable in his role, and who lacked a consistent narrative.

If there’s a lesson from the US this week it is that aspiring political leaders need such a narrative.

Gillard has been striving for one, whether you agree with her not. Abbott is yet to articulate one, and may have exhausted his repertoire.

The US election reminded us that politicians need to tell a story. It’s what’s called the “vision thing” and its importance can’t be overstated.