In the game of deal, no deal, or delay, Parliament rejected May’s Brexit deal again, by another large, if slightly less humiliatingly large, margin than during the initial vote in January — but also voted against leaving the EU without a deal in place. Parliament also agreed to ask for some sort of postponement to the Brexit deadline.
The prime minister made it clear she preferred a short extension — just until June 30 — and said she would ask for a short “technical” extension if Parliament finally sucked it up and voted for her Brexit deal on March 20. If MPs did not, she would be forced to go to the EU and ask for a postponement that was more open-ended and potentially longer-term.
May’s stance was basically: back my deal, or who knows how long this Brexit thing will drag out. That ultimatum targeted the hardline Conservative members of her party who are adamantly pro-Leave (and want to do so on March 29) and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has refused to budge on the Irish backstop issue.
But May’s attempts to win support — which were shaky at best, according to reports — got completely, and unexpectedly, sidelined by Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow.
Bercow is a former Conservative Party member (the speaker gives up his or her party affiliation) who’s become something of a Brexit celebrity because of his fun neckties and his very distinct way of calling for “order” in the House of Commons. Oh, also because he’s given May’s government fits by helping Parliament take back some control over the Brexit process.
Bercow did this in a huge, and somewhat controversial, way this week when he said that May could not bring back her Brexit deal for a third vote because it was “substantially the same” as the one Parliament rejected March 12. Bercow relied on parliamentary rules dating back to 1604, in what he called a “strong and longstanding convention.”
This left May with no chance to bring her deal for a vote on March 20, and forced her to ask the EU for an extension without a clear solution to the UK political impasse. Of course, as her letter to the EU revealed, her plan actually hasn’t changed — she still wants to bring her deal for a third vote.
“It seems as if the only plan is an extension, which is more time to do what she’s already tried already, which is to basically try to strong-arm Parliament to agree to her deal for fear of either no deal or no Brexit,” Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, told me.
The EU has said repeatedly that the current deal is final, so the prospects of a substantially different agreement are nil. Experts told me there’s wiggle room in Bercow’s ruling; for example, he might try to say that since approving a deal is contingent on an extension, the situation is different. Or members of Parliament can potentially vote to suspend the Parliamentary rule.
EU leaders are meeting this week. But don’t expect a decision just yet.
EU leaders will meet this week in Brussels to discuss whether to give the UK an extension. But EU officials have said not to expect a final decision after the summit — and they will likely need to hold an emergency summit next week, potentially as late as March 28.
Tusk’s statement on Wednesday in response to May’s letter indicated that the EU had little appetite to drag Brexit out much longer, and that an extension would depend on the UK finally passing the deal on that third try. That means May will have to bring her vote next early next week — and, according to Tusk, it will need to succeed.
All 27 EU member states must ultimately agree to an extension, but countries are divided on what to do. France has taken a hard line, saying it wants the UK to offer a credible path forward. Ireland, which has the most at stake, has asked the EU to “cut them some slack.”
The EU has also indicated that any extension would be slightly shorter — likely until May 23. That date marks the start of European Parliament elections, and both the UK and the EU are wary about granting a postponement that would require the soon-to-depart UK to participate in this process.
Technically, the new European Parliament opens at the start of July (which is why the prime minister selected June 30 as the new Brexit date), but the Europeans are apparently wary of running so close to that deadline given how Brexit negotiations have played out so far.
“The concern from the EU side is, ‘Is this extra couple of months really going to make any difference to anything?’” Simon Usherwood, deputy director of UK in a Changing Europe, an independent think tank, told me.
The EU has “seen all the votes that have happened last week, they’ve seen all the chaos and confusion, and all Theresa May is telling them in the letter today is, ‘I just need one more push and I’ll be there, and I’ll be fine,’ and that doesn’t sound very convincing to the EU,” Usherwood said.
May and Tusk are both talking about a short-term delay, but any extension longer than a few months raises its own problems — the big one still being the European Parliament elections. A significant delay also seems unlikely unless there’s a clear change in Brexit — such as a second referendum, or possible general elections. Otherwise, many more months to keep debating the same deal makes little sense.
Then there’s always the very real chance that May does bring the Brexit deal for a third vote and it fails yet again. And if that happens, well, who knows.
A no-deal Brexit on March 29 is still the default. This is all very confusing, but the gist of all this is that May asked the EU for a Brexit extension, and the EU countries are going to get together and ultimately deny or approve the request.
The EU isn’t seeking to hide its frustration with the UK over all this. Or, as a German minister put it, the bloc is “exhausted” by Brexit. Actually, even the UK is fed up with the UK.
The prime minister made it clear she preferred a short extension — just until June 30 — and said she would ask for a short “technical” extension if Parliament finally sucked it up and voted for her Brexit deal on March 20. If MPs did not, she would be forced to go to the EU and ask for a postponement that was more open-ended and potentially longer-term.
May’s stance was basically: back my deal, or who knows how long this Brexit thing will drag out. That ultimatum targeted the hardline Conservative members of her party who are adamantly pro-Leave (and want to do so on March 29) and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has refused to budge on the Irish backstop issue.
But May’s attempts to win support — which were shaky at best, according to reports — got completely, and unexpectedly, sidelined by Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow.
Bercow is a former Conservative Party member (the speaker gives up his or her party affiliation) who’s become something of a Brexit celebrity because of his fun neckties and his very distinct way of calling for “order” in the House of Commons. Oh, also because he’s given May’s government fits by helping Parliament take back some control over the Brexit process.
Bercow did this in a huge, and somewhat controversial, way this week when he said that May could not bring back her Brexit deal for a third vote because it was “substantially the same” as the one Parliament rejected March 12. Bercow relied on parliamentary rules dating back to 1604, in what he called a “strong and longstanding convention.”
This left May with no chance to bring her deal for a vote on March 20, and forced her to ask the EU for an extension without a clear solution to the UK political impasse. Of course, as her letter to the EU revealed, her plan actually hasn’t changed — she still wants to bring her deal for a third vote.
“It seems as if the only plan is an extension, which is more time to do what she’s already tried already, which is to basically try to strong-arm Parliament to agree to her deal for fear of either no deal or no Brexit,” Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, told me.
The EU has said repeatedly that the current deal is final, so the prospects of a substantially different agreement are nil. Experts told me there’s wiggle room in Bercow’s ruling; for example, he might try to say that since approving a deal is contingent on an extension, the situation is different. Or members of Parliament can potentially vote to suspend the Parliamentary rule.
EU leaders are meeting this week. But don’t expect a decision just yet.
EU leaders will meet this week in Brussels to discuss whether to give the UK an extension. But EU officials have said not to expect a final decision after the summit — and they will likely need to hold an emergency summit next week, potentially as late as March 28.
Tusk’s statement on Wednesday in response to May’s letter indicated that the EU had little appetite to drag Brexit out much longer, and that an extension would depend on the UK finally passing the deal on that third try. That means May will have to bring her vote next early next week — and, according to Tusk, it will need to succeed.
All 27 EU member states must ultimately agree to an extension, but countries are divided on what to do. France has taken a hard line, saying it wants the UK to offer a credible path forward. Ireland, which has the most at stake, has asked the EU to “cut them some slack.”
The EU has also indicated that any extension would be slightly shorter — likely until May 23. That date marks the start of European Parliament elections, and both the UK and the EU are wary about granting a postponement that would require the soon-to-depart UK to participate in this process.
Technically, the new European Parliament opens at the start of July (which is why the prime minister selected June 30 as the new Brexit date), but the Europeans are apparently wary of running so close to that deadline given how Brexit negotiations have played out so far.
“The concern from the EU side is, ‘Is this extra couple of months really going to make any difference to anything?’” Simon Usherwood, deputy director of UK in a Changing Europe, an independent think tank, told me.
The EU has “seen all the votes that have happened last week, they’ve seen all the chaos and confusion, and all Theresa May is telling them in the letter today is, ‘I just need one more push and I’ll be there, and I’ll be fine,’ and that doesn’t sound very convincing to the EU,” Usherwood said.
May and Tusk are both talking about a short-term delay, but any extension longer than a few months raises its own problems — the big one still being the European Parliament elections. A significant delay also seems unlikely unless there’s a clear change in Brexit — such as a second referendum, or possible general elections. Otherwise, many more months to keep debating the same deal makes little sense.
Then there’s always the very real chance that May does bring the Brexit deal for a third vote and it fails yet again. And if that happens, well, who knows.
A no-deal Brexit on March 29 is still the default. This is all very confusing, but the gist of all this is that May asked the EU for a Brexit extension, and the EU countries are going to get together and ultimately deny or approve the request.
The EU isn’t seeking to hide its frustration with the UK over all this. Or, as a German minister put it, the bloc is “exhausted” by Brexit. Actually, even the UK is fed up with the UK.
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