The Liberal Party's disastrous performance in the Victorian election has put the Morrison government on course for a crushing defeat at next year's federal poll, as a brawl breaks out over whether Malcolm Turnbull's demise was to blame for the shock result.
Premier Daniel Andrews easily won Saturday's election following a surge to Labor in a swag of seats across the state, including marginal electorates held by the Liberals.
Victoria election: The blame game begins
As Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor faithful celebrated their landslide victory in Victoria, recriminations began after the Liberal Party's crushing defeat.While Coalition figures blamed the loss on a poor campaign spearheaded by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy, they conceded leadership instability in Canberra was a significant factor with worrying implications for next year's federal election and the NSW election in March.
Party strategists believe the federal seat of Corangamite – the nation's most marginal – is a certain loss for the Coalition, along with Chisholm. Chisholm was the only electorate the Liberal Party won at the 2016 election. The current MP, Julia Banks, is leaving politics after sensationally alleging she was bullied during the Liberal leadership implosion in August.
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They are also worried about La Trobe, which is held by 3.5 per cent, Deakin, held by Peter Dutton ally Michael Sukkar on 6.3 per cent, and Casey, held by Speaker Tony Smith on what should be a safe margin of 4.5 per cent.
Dunkley, which was won by the Liberal Party in 2016 but is now notionally Labor after a redistribution, is also vulnerable.
The Morrison government lost its majority after losing last month's Wentworth byelection, and will be swept from office next year even if it lost just one or two seats.
The Victorian Labor Party capitalised on Mr Turnbull's dumping by erecting billboards featuring Mr Guy alongside pictures of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and former prime minister Tony Abbott.
One senior Liberal MP told Fairfax Media that Mr Dutton's claim in January that Victorians were "scared to go out to restaurants" because of "African gang violence" had caused enormous damage in the state.
Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger – who is under pressure to resign over Saturday's outcome – said Mr Turnbull's removal had been "very disorderly" and "obviously the federal issue hasn't helped us".
"We knew we were always up against it here," he said.
Conservative commentator Andrew Bolt said the state defeat would send "shockwaves through Canberra".
Bolt said Mr Guy was a "hopeless campaigner" and in a message to federal Liberals who are preparing next year's campaign strategy, said the party could not rely on "scaring people" to win votes.
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