Herald/Nielsen poll: Abbott still sliding south

The AWU slush fund attack appears to have backfired on the opposition, driving Tony Abbott's popularity to historic lows. But the Coalition would still easily win a federal election, according to the latest Herald/Nielsen poll.

The poll shows Labor holding, but not building on, its end-of-year political recovery - trailing the Coalition 52 per cent to 48 in two party-preferred terms.

Of the 75 per cent of voters who said they were aware of the AWU allegations about the conduct of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, when she was a lawyer 20 years ago, 64 per cent said they disapproved of the way Mr Abbott had handled the issue. This included 46 per cent of his Liberal National Party voters.

Tony Abbott's popularity among voters has fallen once again, with the AWU affair apparently backfiring on the opposition leader.

The ferocious end-of-year attack over the affair - in which the Coalition was unable to prove allegations of illegal behaviour by Ms Gillard but still demanded she resign - coincides with Mr Abbott's disapproval rate climbing to 63 per cent, a record for him and the second highest in Nielsen poll history.

After a year dominated by political scandal, Mr Abbott's approval rating fell 2 points to 34 per cent in the poll, taken from Thursday to Saturday, and his disapproval rating rose 3 points.
Ms Gillard now has a 10-point lead over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister, with Ms Gillard preferred by 50 per cent of voters (down 1) and Mr Abbott by 40 per cent (down 2).

''His handling of the AWU matter has not helped his position and may be part of the reason his approval has further declined,'' said Nielsen director John Stirton.

Despite Mr Abbott's record unpopularity, the Coalition has 43 per cent of the primary vote - slightly lower than it polled in the 2010 election - and 51 per cent of the two party-preferred vote. It would win an election on a two party-preferred swing of about 2 per cent, based on preference flows at the 2010 election.

If preferences are instead calculated by how respondents say they will allocate them, the gap between the parties is narrower, with the Coalition on 51 per cent and Labor on 49.

Labor ends the year in an uncertain position. It has maintained its recovery from its disastrous midyear polls, with its primary vote now 35 per cent, up from the low of 26 per cent before the carbon tax was introduced in July. But it does not appear to be gaining momentum.

''Labor's holding its recovery, it's real, and there is no evidence here that it has reversed. But it has slowed, and it is too early to say whether it will continue,'' Mr Stirton said.

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