Wednesday, May 09, 2012

Europe: Austerity Economics

For two years, Europe has been force-fed a diet of unrelenting austerity. Spending cuts have been imposed, pensions have been made less generous, and taxes have gone up. The policy has been an economic disaster. Growth has collapsed, unemployment has soared and - not surprisingly - budget deficits have been much bigger than forecast.

Election results from France and Greece show that it has also been a political disaster: voters have decisively rejected Euro-sadism and made it clear they want their politicians to chart a different course. Democracy has trumped austerity.

In the fantasy world of Brussels policymakers, the eurozone would fast-track to full fiscal union, but there is no realistic chance of this happening any time soon. Nor does there seem much prospect of ameliorating austerity with a growth strategy that would give the more vulnerable countries a fighting chance of meeting unrealistic deficit reduction targets.

Europe is heading deeper into a double-dip recession. As Tristan Cooper, at Fidelity Worldwide Investments, noted: ''The irresistible force of German austerity has clashed with the immovable object of Greek popular resistance.'' Unless the terms of Greece's bailout are made less onerous, it is heading for the euro exit door. The warning signs for the commission are there: sow the wind and you will reap the whirlwind.

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